Belief alone won’t beat All Blacks

Pass test ... the Wallabies captain's run at ANZ Stadium yesterday.THE Wallabies are buoyant after repeatedly peaking at the right time during the Wales Test series, but know they are still well short of what is required to be confident of beating the All Blacks at ANZ Stadium tonight.
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Wallabies captain David Pocock yesterday called on his teammates to lift their game and make full use of home-ground advantage.

The Australian Rugby Union has certainly applied the pressure on the Wallabies by focusing its marketing campaign around how it has been a barren decade since they last won the Bledisloe Cup, and that the task may be easier as they are playing two of the three Tests at home.

No wonder Wallabies coach Robbie Deans was provoked into commenting over whether it had been too long since the team had shown off the cup. ''Clearly it's time,'' Deans said.

At least the Wallabies head into the series with some of the attributes needed for trans-Tasman success. After the blip against Scotland in Newcastle, the Wallabies rebounded brilliantly against Wales, one of the best northern hemisphere teams to tour Australia in decades, winning the series 3-0. What was most encouraging was the team's ability to play at their best near the end of each Test and withstand pressure, showing the squad's level of conditioning had improved markedly.

The sign of a good side is that they consistently win the tight ones, and several close victories had the desired effect of boosting the Wallabies' spirits.

''We took confidence out of that series,'' Pocock said. ''As a team you want to win those arm-wrestles right at the end. In these Tests, we stayed in the contest and found a way to win.

''But the Rugby Championship is going to be a totally different beast, and we know those performances against Wales won't be anywhere near good enough.

''We just have to do everything better, and in particular we know we have to start better against the All Blacks. Our general intensity has to go up, because New Zealand tend to take their opportunities. Wales, in the first and second Tests, created a lot of opportunities and didn't take them. But the All Blacks do.''

As importantly, Pocock knows he will play a critical role in the outcome of this Test. The breakdown battle will be decisive, and with the All Blacks showing during the Ireland Test series that their intensity at the tackle is of the highest standard, Pocock's openside breakaway work will be important in providing a handbrake. As important will be how new Wallabies blindside breakaway Dave Dennis, and No.8 Scott Higginbotham, combine with Pocock.

But Deans also argued it is imperative Pocock gets a fair deal. The coach was irritated during the Wales series that Pocock was often held back by opponents after the breakdown so that he had no involvement in the next few phases. Deans called on the touch judges to properly adjudicate that area, as he believes the All Blacks, knowing how pivotal Pocock is to the Wallabies' plans, will try similar tactics.

''It's not so much at the breakdown, but what's happening long after the breakdown is over,'' Deans said. ''The ball is gone, the game is carrying on and players are being denied the ability to participate. It's the touch judges' responsibility because the referee, invariably, is watching the game, which is somewhere else.''

But one area where Deans is forever evasive revolves around his new opposing coach Steve Hansen. As expected, Hansen, in his first Bledisloe Cup battle as head All Blacks coach, has tried to provoke his old Canterbury playing and coaching partner with old-fashioned sledging.

The All Blacks coach this week had a dig at the Wallabies forward pack, and also suggested Deans made a succession of selection bungles during last year's World Cup. The inference was Deans no longer had confidence in World Cup five-eighth Quade Cooper, who has not been picked for this Test.

Asked about the comments yesterday, Deans laughed and said: ''Steve is a very good fisherman. He loves fishing.''

Hansen will keep tossing the burley in Deans's direction during the season. But the ever cautious Australian coach will keep spitting out those smelly bite-sized pieces of pilchard. He has been around too long to attack low-grade bait.

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By admin, ago

Sitting pretty for the run home

Illustration: Jim PavlidisFINAL WORD
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THE Tigers, in my observation, have more supporters who go to the footy dressed up and in costume than any other club.

Last Sunday, as the Olympics were closing and the Brits were preparing to put on a show to dazzle the world, Richmond was playing the Bulldogs at the MCG.

The Tiger Army, full of ribald chants, was about a dozen rows behind us. Around us were middle-aged women in black and yellow outfits that made them look like semi-inflated wasps and the odd young man in a head-to-toe Tiger suit. In front of us were two demure young Asian women, both dressed in black, one wearing a head scarf which suggested she was a Muslim.

At half-time, unable to contain my curiosity, I leant forward and asked the young women where they were from. They were international students from Malaysia. Someone had given them free tickets to the match. They had cardboard sheets with autographed photos of all the Richmond players.

''The game,'' I told them, ''is crazy, but beautiful.''

They nodded and smiled as if to say that was as they had found it. The Tigers gave the Dogs a thumping. The Dogs played some pretty football but lacked the big, capable players who hold a football team together the way buttons hold a cardigan. It's hard for me to look at the Tigers and think they shouldn't have done better in 2012 but I think about Carlton, too. It's a bias I have towards teams with recognisably individual talent as opposed to teams like Sydney and North Melbourne that have a near-uniform identity.

In the case of the Tigers, I like watching Dustin Martin play.

He's the football equivalent of a four-wheel-drive with a tray full of work equipment and red dust on its sides.

He's quick, strong, reads the play and kicks the ball long. He slaughtered the Dogs. And I like watching Trent Cotchin play. A lot of people do - he's young and good-looking, a one-touch player with a quicksilver mind who is deceptively slow in his movements so that it constantly seems like he is performing tricks or acts of football magic.

A Brownlow for Cotchin would be like an Olympic gold for Tigerland and be received by the Tiger Army with that degree of reverence.

Another team I like watching is West Coast. Mick Malthouse was a mighty coach but I would argue that John Worsfold's Eagles teams have been better to watch than Malthouse's Eagles even though Malthouse's sides had more talent. The Eagles teams of the early 1990s were strewn with great names - Matera, Jakovich, Kemp, Lewis, Mainwaring, McKenna - but the captain of that formidable unit was John ''Woosha'' Worsfold.

A pharmacist by trade, he played with a lot of nous and had a small boy's smile when interviewed after games. On the field, if he got the chance, he'd hit you like a semi-trailer and leave you in a trance. Malthouse's teams were solid as cement. Woosha's teams, for one reason or another, have been more fragile but, again this year, the Eagles are in the finals mix.

The big controversy in Perth this week concerned Geelong coach Chris Scott saying the West Coast crowd was the worst in Australia. This followed Geelong's Tom Hawkins being booed by a small section of the Perth crowd last weekend as he was being carried off senseless.

Seeking to further plumb the West Coast psyche, I found a website for West Coast supporters.

The post I read alleged the Eagles were cheated of the 2005 premiership through the systematic intimidation of the umpires during the course of that season by Sydney coach Paul Roos. It included this view of Worsfold: ''One of the things I most like and respect about Worsfold is that he keeps his trap shut when things don't go our way - he simply has far too much class and fortitude to go all crying to the media when things go wrong.''

It made me realise something I had either forgotten or not properly processed: Woosha is a hero in the West. These are the passions beginning to stir as we close on September and the finals.

Sydney and Adelaide, sitting one and two on the ladder, are looking at home finals, but Malthouse said this week they aren't the two best teams in the competition which, if true, is a serious indictment of the AFL roster. Beneath Sydney and Adelaide sit Hawthorn, Collingwood and Geelong.

Collingwood was built during the terrible depression of the 1890s on the principle that no individual is bigger than the club. As the suspension of Dane Swan showed, Collingwood is still Collingwood. The Pies are a tough, attractive team but Hawthorn played the best footy I've seen this year when it defeated Collingwood in round 17.

Geelong, meanwhile, is defiant, like Nellie Melba being told the time has come to leave the stage when she can see further great performances ahead for herself.

I have no idea who will win. I don't know anyone who does - it's that sort of year. All I know is that on the last Saturday in September, the season will have a crazy but beautiful climax. People around Australia, and around the world, some in costumes and some with painted faces, will be gathered in groups, shouting at televisions.

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By admin, ago

Old boys in awe of classy North

GREG Miller was one of the key architects of North Melbourne's dominance through the 1990s. As chief recruiter and later general manager, he helped build a side that featured in seven preliminary finals and claimed two premierships.
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Those North teams, led by the likes of Wayne Carey, Glenn Archer and Anthony Stevens, boasted skill and muscle, something the Kangaroos have not been able to replicate since those heady days - until now.

Miller has watched the Kangaroos intently in recent months and has marvelled at the development of a team that has won eight of its past nine matches heading into tonight's blockbuster against Collingwood at Etihad Stadium.

''This current group are playing the best football since the late '90s - the style of footy and the precision,'' Miller said.

''It is the best assembled group and skill level that I have seen. Their skill level is fantastic. I have seen their sides that have made finals [in 2007 and 2008] - this side is better. Their football is better.

''I have seen the Kangaroos play all their games recently and I can't believe they are playing unbelievably good footy.

''They were just miles ahead of Essendon in their movement of the footy [last Sunday]. Everything they did was first class. They have come a long way.

''They are very fit, obviously. They are leading and moving at one end and moving at the other end. They put Essendon to shame in that regard.''

The victory over the Bombers was pivotal, for the Kangaroos dislodged a team that earlier this year was considered a premiership favourite, prompting Carey to declare his former team had now taken the ''next step''.

Now comes an even mightier step, against a Collingwood side that has embarrassed the Kangaroos by an average of 80.5 points in their past four meetings. The Magpies have won all 16 quarters.

''I think they [North] are one of the form sides of the competition,'' Carey said.

''Obviously, they have got their troubles now with injury, which they haven't had, but the way they played on the weekend, they have certainly proved they have improved as a side and winning games that are important to them.

''It feels like they have taken that next step, but once again it's another challenge this week against arguably the best side in the comp.''

Good management and luck had allowed the Kangaroos to avoid soft-tissue injuries until last weekend, but they have been forced to make three changes with Daniel Wells (calf), Leigh Adams (shoulder) and Nathan Grima (hamstring) out.

Carey said the move to three marking forwards - the developing Robbie Tarrant and Lachie Hansen working alongside veteran Drew Petrie - was working well.

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Fear and loathing

Illustration: Simon LetchA series of graphic TV ads that are part of a new public health campaign show an off-putting substance as yellow and lumpy as boarding school custard roiling in a way that wouldn't be out of place in an Alien film. It is meant to be body fat, specifically ''toxic'' visceral fat that sits deep inside the body and smothers vital organs, such as the heart.
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The Live Lighter campaign is a joint venture between the West Australian Heart Foundation and the Cancer Council, and its ads are based on the same behavioural principles as the highly successful National Tobacco Campaign, which has been confronting Australians with images of tarry lungs, gangrenous toes and oozing arteries since 1997.

Using anti-smoking-style tactics in a weight-management context is novel, but also controversial. Critics claim such campaigns compound the stigma surrounding obesity and that they have little effect. Some say scare tactics just make people shut down, a criticism that has also been aimed at road safety and skin cancer awareness campaigns.

However, Simon Chapman, the renowned tobacco control activist and professor of public health at the University of Sydney, says one of the most persistent myths surrounding public health is that ''scare tactics don't work''.

''Overwhelmingly, what you find from people who have made changes is that … it was fear about adverse consequences which motivated them,'' he says.

There have been attempts at positive health messages around tobacco control, he says, ''ads showing wholesome young people slotting basketballs through hoops … [but] they had zero cut-through; an absolute wallpaper effect.''

Research has shown that humour, too, is an ineffective motivator, says David Hill, a behavioural researcher and former chairman of the National Expert Advisory Committee on Tobacco, who has been instrumental in both the National Tobacco and Live Lighter campaigns. ''Non-smokers love humorous anti-smoking ads,'' he says.

When people criticise scare tactics, Chapman says, ''they are often getting confused with whether an ad is likeable rather than whether it is effective.''

Hill refers to the strategy used in the Live Lighter and National Tobacco Campaign ads as a ''doctor's-eye view'' rather than a scare tactic. ''[The NTC] was called a shock and a scare campaign, but it's the truth. It's actually showing what's going on in there. I think we face a similar situation with overweight/ obesity. The trends are awful and, at the very least … we owe it to the public to show what's really happening inside their bodies.''

Both Chapman and Hill do acknowledge, however, that obesity brings a special set of challenges.

There are people, Chapman says, ''who do have physiology that makes it very difficult for them to lose weight … and there is a serious discussion to be held about the consequences for those people who feel they are being stigmatised and left behind.''

''Losing weight is tougher, I accept that,'' Hill says. ''But these are desperate times so we have to try.'' A comprehensive series of evaluations is in place to track the effectiveness of the campaign over time, he says.

The author of Fat Chance: My Big Fat Gastric Band Adventure, Melanie Tait, 32, was put on the first of many diets at age seven. The result? By 2009, when she underwent weight-loss surgery, she had about 50 kilograms to lose. Tait has now lost a lot of that weight but says she still battles daily with appetite and a body that's reluctant to shrink.

Asked to look at the Live Lighter ads, she admires the production values and agrees the graphic images ''certainly stick in there … but at the same time I don't think fat people need to be associated with being toxic any further than they already are.

''I think it would give pause to anyone who does have a weight issue but, that said, I don't think there are many people who are overweight or obese who aren't already well aware of what it's doing to their body. They already know it's a problem and they wish they could fix it.''

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By admin, ago

Please, sir, can I have some less?

IF YOU are wondering how closely listed companies watch each other when it comes to the sensitive topic of executive pay, consider announcements made this year by Australia's two biggest miners.
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In February, Rio Tinto's chairman Jan du Plessis said: ''Tom Albanese and Guy Elliott have notified the remuneration committee that they do not wish to be considered for an annual bonus and I think that is absolutely right.''

A fortnight ago, BHP Billiton chairman Jac Nasser said: ''Marius Kloppers and Mike Yeager have advised the remuneration committee that they do not wish to be considered for a bonus for the 2012 financial year. The remuneration committee and the board respect and agree with that decision.''

Suddenly abstinence is fashionable.

Not only did BHP follow its rival in abandoning bonuses for its top executives due to multibillion-dollar write-downs in recently purchased assets, it also chose the same way of presenting the news.

The pitch was that forgoing the bonus was a voluntary initiative by the executives involved, an offer accepted by their grateful boards.

It forestalled the ignominy of the boards withholding the bonus payments, which would have looked more like a punishment.

In turn, the bonus announcements should improve the atmosphere at the next annual general meetings for the two companies.

Then it will be the turn of shareholders to be gracious. When the time comes to vote on the remuneration report, there will be less reason for them to take the cane to the directors.

The triggers for the sacrifices were a $US9 billion write-down in the value of Alcan, which Rio bought for $US38 billion in 2007, and a $US3 billion write-down in the value of US shale-gas assets, for which BHP Petroleum paid $US5 billion in February 2011.

Last year the bonus for Albanese, Rio's chief executive, was $US1.2 million. Its chief financial officer, Guy Elliott, received a bonus of $US989,000.

Kloppers, BHP's chief executive, received a cash bonus last year of $US2.3 million and the head of BHP Petroleum, Mike Yeager, received $US1.3 million.

BHP and Rio are not the only big companies cutting pay. This week the chief executive of BlueScope Steel, Paul O'Malley, and his counterparts at Goodman Fielder, Chris Delaney, at Platinum Asset Management, Kerr Neilson, and at ANZ Bank, Mike Smith, announced new or continuing pay restraint.

They followed the chief executive of Commonwealth Bank, Ian Narev, the head of the Coles supermarket chain, Ian McLeod, and the chairman of funds manager Perpetual, Peter Scott.

Bosses who are taking home less in 2012 in long-term incentive pay because the required performance hurdles were not met include the chief executive of the wealth management group AMP, Craig Dunn, and the chief executive of Macquarie Bank, Nicholas Moore.

It's hardly a stampede but the number of executives of large companies making a virtue of austerity is in contrast to the explosion of executive pay in the past 20 or so years.

Research published by the Australian Council of Superannuation Investors shows that in the decade to 2010, median fixed pay for chief executives in the top 100 ASX Australian companies increased 131 per cent and the median bonus increased 190 per cent.

This compared with a 31 per cent increase in the S&P/ASX 100 index over the same period.

In a small way, the recent announcements are a neat reply to the familiar refrain from prominent company directors that laws to ensure greater disclosure would only have the perverse effect of increasing pay by making it easier for executives to discover how much their peers were being paid.

Perhaps in tough times compulsory disclosure will create peer pressure of a different kind.

The context for the pay cuts is a tough global economy and a local sharemarket index that fell 11 per cent in the year to June. Another factor is the second year of new laws designed to give shareholders greater say over executive pay.

The so-called ''two strikes'' legislation came into force in July 2011 and could bite this year. During last year's annual meeting season, 23 companies in the S&P/ASX 300 index received ''first strike'' votes of 25 per cent or more rejecting the remuneration report.

If the same companies, listed in the table, receive a second-strike vote of 25 per cent or more this year, shareholders will then automatically vote on whether to go to a spill of the board.

If more than 50 per cent of shareholders vote in favour of the spill motion, another meeting must be held within 90 days when all directors must seek re-election. The threshold at the second meeting is also 50 per cent.

Shareholder advisory group Ownership Matters has been discussing remuneration with listed companies on behalf of its institutional investor clients.

Its director, Dean Paatsch, says it's too early to tell whether the pay cuts announced recently are a result of the new legislation.

''The thesis really about two strikes is that it doesn't give shareholders any more rights than they already have,'' he says. He points out that any shareholder with a 5 per cent stake already has the right to call a meeting to consider a board spill.

''What it does do is put a director's reputation on the front page of the paper, and that's the most valuable asset that a non-executive director has. Two strikes puts that at risk through media attention.''

It is common for executives of listed companies to receive a fixed salary and to be eligible for a cash bonus if short-term hurdles are met, and for shares if long-term hurdles are met.

Sometimes a cut in one of these is outweighed by a rise in another.

When it was reported recently that Commonwealth Bank was freezing the pay of senior executives, including Narev, the new chief executive, it revived memories of a similar initiative under his predecessor, Ralph Norris.

Norris cut his fixed pay by 10 per cent for the six months to December 2009 ''during the worst of the global financial crisis'', CBA said in its annual report.

However, the impact of this cut, which resulted in Norris' fixed pay falling from $3.3 million to $3.1 million in the year to June 2010, was swamped by increases in the value of various share-based payments Norris was entitled to under long-term incentive plans previously approved by shareholders.

His total remuneration in the year to June 2010 rose from $9.2 million to $16.1 million.

Paatsch says that while the recent sacrifices of short-term bonuses by Albanese and Kloppers are ''more than symbolic'', the pair have done well in the past year under their long-term share schemes.

When the Rio annual report was released in March, it emerged that Albanese's total remuneration in the year to December rose.

His fixed salary increased from $US1.4 million to $US1.6 million. His cash bonus fell from $US1.2 million in 2010 to zero, as du Plessis had announced in February. The value of shares he was awarded under long-term plans rose from $US3.7 million to $US4.6 million.

After adding superannuation, his total remuneration for the year was $US8.62 million, up from $US8.36 million in 2010.

BHP, which has a June balance date, reports its full-year results next week.

Paatsch says the bonus sacrifices ''have got people talking … but what's not remarked upon is that the [long-term incentive plans], which were issued at a time when the share price was on its knees have all been paid out''.

Like Albanese, ''Kloppers as well has a substantial amount of equity that's vested in the last year,'' he says.

The share awards are based on plans, approved by shareholders three to five years ago, that the executives would receive shares if the company outperformed a peer group of other large companies.

Mike Hogan, a partner of the accounting firm Ernst & Young, advises listed companies on remuneration.

He says his clients are focusing more than they used to on explaining their remuneration policies.

''It's no longer just a regulatory or compliance issue; increasingly it's an engagement tool as well,'' Hogan says.

He says the change is not so evident in relation to long-term incentives offered to executives, typically in the form of shares.

The long-term hurdles are easily identifiable measures, such as growth in earnings per share or improvement in total shareholder return.

However when it comes to short-term incentives, usually cash bonuses, ''there are areas where the board does need to apply its judgment and they do so'', Hogan says.

''The long-term incentive tends to take care of itself because it is typically objectively quantifiable. It's the short-term incentive that's really the focus for institutional investors and the shareholder advisory bodies.''

Some companies are publishing charts linking the company's performance to executive pay. Others are writing explanations.

He says increases generally in fixed salary have been ''very, very constrained, consistent with the broader market''.

When it comes to bonuses: ''If the performance is there and the outcome is there then they will get paid something; if the performance is not there, then they won't.''

He says it's too early to judge the impact of the new legislation. ''Nobody's keen to get a strike and, I imagine, nobody's keen to get a second strike,'' he says.

An example of the new tone from listed companies is Thursday's announcement of a 16 per cent drop in annual net profit from funds manager Platinum Asset Management.

At last year's annual meeting, 3.86 per cent of shareholders voted against the remuneration report.

''Despite the low 'no' vote … the company has taken the opportunity to better explain the basis and structure of remuneration paid to its key management personnel ,'' Platinum's chairman, Michael Cole, told shareholders on Thursday.

He highlighted that in the year to June there had been no increase in base salary paid to any of the key personnel, only two of the six received a bonus in 2012, there were no options granted or exercised during the year, and ''the managing director waived his right to receive a bonus in 2012, and this has been ratified by the remuneration committee''.

Shareholders had to read further into the report to see that the managing director, Kerr Neilson, had also forgone a cash bonus last year.

That gesture went unremarked by Cole in the 2011 results announcement.

Neilson's main return from Platinum is not his $448,000 remuneration as managing director, but the dividends he receives as the owner of 57 per cent of the company.

The final dividend of 13¢ per share announced on Thursday was 2¢ lower than last year's second-half dividend, but that is an outcome Neilson shares with all shareholders.

The role of directors who are also owners of large stakes in public companies could affect the outcome if there are any second strikes this year.

When the gaming company Crown suffered a 55 per cent vote against its remuneration report last year, chairman James Packer said the new law would leave the company in a ''farcical position'' because he would use his 46 per cent stake to support the sitting board.

Under the new rules, shareholders associated with a recipient of remuneration are not allowed to vote on the adoption of the remuneration report, either at the first strike or the second strike.

Nor, if there are two votes against the report of more than 25 per cent, can they vote on the automatic resolution to call another meeting to consider a board spill.

However, they are allowed to vote if the second meeting proceeds and all directors are forced to seek re-election.

The likelihood that even two strikes against companies with owner-directors will not lead to a change in remuneration has led to some criticism of the new regime.

Another argument commonly raised by directors and executives is that the two-strike regime can be abused by a shareholder who wants to spill the board for reasons unrelated to remuneration.

In a note to clients last week, law firm Minter Ellison warned opponents of the new system that if it was ''seen to fail'' it could be replaced by something more draconian.

The note's author, lawyer Nicola McGuire, says the concern being expressed by companies is that even if a spill motion were not guaranteed to succeed, a dissident shareholder with 20 to 25 per cent could force negotiations on changing the composition of the board merely by threatening to vote against the remuneration report.

McGuire says if such concerns persuade a future Australian government to change the regime, recent reforms in Britain are likely to be closely examined here.

''The UK has put a binding vote into place, rather than the Australian advisory vote that then leads to a board spill,'' she says.

From October 2013, British remuneration reports will be split in two. Future pay arrangements will be put to a binding vote of shareholders, with a 50 per cent voting threshold.

''If they don't approve the resolution, the remuneration has to be in accordance with a previously approved policy until the new one is approved,'' McGuire says.

A second part of the report, relating to how the pay policy has been implemented in the year just passed, is only subject to an advisory vote.

The contents of this part of the report must adhere to new rules designed to make executive pay more transparent.

It must contain a single figure of remuneration for each director, and a chart comparing company performance and chief executive pay.

McGuire says the main aim of the UK politician overseeing the reform, business secretary Vince Cable, was to enhance communication between management and shareholders.

Not all the recent announcements of abstinence are aimed only at shareholders.

The chief executive of uranium miner Paladin Energy, John Borshoff, said this week he was likely to accept another 12 months on reduced pay after taking a 25 per cent pay cut in November.

While acknowledging the cut last year was a response to investor concerns, Borshoff also said it was good for staff morale.

Nor are all the pay cuts linked to poor performance.

When Wesfarmers reported an 11 per cent increase in its annual profit yesterday, there were plaudits all round for the head of its Coles supermarket subsidiary, Ian McLeod.

In June Wesfarmers shareholders learnt that the chairman, Bob Every, had persuaded McLeod to sign a new contract to take effect from July 2013 at much less than half his current pay.

In the year to June 2011, McLeod's total pay was $15.6 million, including $11 million in short-term share awards. From next year his total pay could be in the region of $5 million to $6 million.

Paatsch says: ''Ian McLeod is one out of the box in the sense that his initial package was so incredibly generous that this is simply a return from the stratosphere to high altitude,'' he says.''The only way from there was down.''

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Four crucial days to decide Europe’s fate

AFTER yesterday announcing a 5.5 per cent higher $4.5 billion profit for the nine months to June, ANZ chief executive Mike Smith said - as others have said in this profit reporting season - that he isn't running the business on the assumption that subdued trading conditions will soon end.
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Even if Europe comes up with a plan to resolve its sovereign debt crisis, the world is in a ''multi-year debt workout,'' Smith says. The short-term outlook for Europe is, however, crucial and there are four deadlines looming: next Friday, September 6, September 12, and October 8.

September 6 is a big one. It's the day the markets want European Central Bank president Mario Draghi to definitively explain his July 26 promise to ''do whatever it takes to preserve the euro''.

The ECB met a week after he spoke, and Draghi announced that the central bank was considering ''outright open market operations'' in sovereign bond markets.

The bank would address concerns of private sector bond owners in the process, and the European Union needed to be prepared to activate its own bailout funds, he said, but only with ''strict and effective conditionality''.

What Draghi is believed to be planning is a two-pronged defence of the euro that will focus on Spain and Italy, the two nations most in danger of a debt-market meltdown.

The ECB will step into the markets and begin buying sovereign bonds that Spain and Italy have already issued, focusing on shorter-term paper where its buying gets the most traction. The EU will separately buy new longer term bonds from Spain and Italy - but only if they agree to tighter EU fiscal controls.

Draghi said on August 2 that the buying would be ''of a size adequate to reach its objective''. That objective is a sustained rise in Spanish and Italian bond prices and a proportional fall in bond yields and borrowing costs.

Draghi wants to eliminate a ''convertibility discount'' in Spanish and Italian bond prices that reflects fears that the two nations will fall out of the euro system.

He also wants to convince private sector bondholders that ECB buying will not turn them into second-class creditors, as Greek private sector bondholders became in February when they agreed to a 53 per cent bond write-down and the ECB did not, on the grounds that it could not directly finance the stricken nation. If they are confident they will rank equally with the ECB they will be less likely to undermine the ECB buying by selling into it.

Draghi's August 2 comment that the ECB would ''design the appropriate modalities'' of the plan in coming weeks puts the ECB's September 6 meeting in the spotlight. He has to provide more details at that time to maintain his momentum and the global market rally his comments triggered.

The European Union's part in the plan will, however, be in suspense until September 12, when Germany's Constitutional Court decides whether to grant an application by 12,000 German citizens for a temporary injunction against German laws that help create Europe's new €700 billion ($A820 billion) bailout fund, the European Stability Mechanism. The ESM must be approved by EU nations that account for 90 per cent of its capital base: Germany's funding share is 27 per cent, so its agreement is essential.

An injunction would not be instantly fatal to the emerging plan. The court would need to make a final decision about whether Germany's participation in the ESM is constitutional, and a temporary fund the ESM is designed to replace, the European Financial Stability Facility, is still alive. It would, however, further delay the ESM, which was originally intended to debut last month, and the temporary EFSF has much less firepower than the ESM after spending more than half its €440 billion kitty on other bailouts.

Greece's crisis is also still not contained. Its economic output in the June quarter was 6.2 per cent lower than a year earlier, and unemployment is running at 23 per cent. There's a real question about whether budget cuts it agreed to in February in return for a second, €130 billion bailout are the right medicine - and no doubt in any event that the coalition government Greece elected in June will be unable to deliver the first tranche of cuts in time for a planned €31 billion injection of bailout money needed to keep the lights on.

Germany is taking a hard line as usual in public, and insisting that Greece must deliver cuts on time to get its money. The Greek government wants a two-year extension for the entire program.

Representatives of the bailout troika - the EU, the European Central Bank and the International Monetary Fund - have been conducting a stocktake, and are due to report back to the EU on October 8. Market anxiety will ramp up as that date approaches if there are no signs of a compromise, because if the Greek bailout is derailed an old, dangerous scenario reappears: a third bailout will need to be negotiated, with all its complications, or Greece will default and exit the euro, with potentially calamitous repercussions in the Spanish and Italian bond markets.

The final piece of the puzzle is Spain's banking system. The EU has agreed to inject €100 billion into Spain's banks without tipping Spain into a full bailout, and Spain's parliament meets on Friday to vote on the deal and its attached conditions, including the creation of a new ''bad bank'' that will harvest bank debts that have gone wrong. The biggest casualty of Spain's property market collapse, Bankia, is waiting for a €19 billion injection, and needs it soon.

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Wickenby charges quashed

TWO high-profile targets of Project Wickenby have scored a major victory after the New South Wales Supreme Court found their right to a fair trial had been so compromised by authorities' handling of material against them that criminal charges should be permanently quashed.
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The ruling raises questions about whether other Wickenby prosecutions have also been compromised.

Lawyer Ross Edward Seller and Patrick David McCarthy were charged in March this year over an alleged tax fraud, which involved a Scotch whisky operation, and their links to the Wickenby-targeted Swiss-based firm Strachans, run by Richard and Philip Egglishaw.

The pair, in a Wickenby operation code named Operation Polbeam, were compulsorily examined by the Australian Crime Commission in 2007 over their business dealings in 2001-02.

The men's appeal centred on material obtained during the crime commission hearings - transcripts of their examinations that were forwarded to the Commonwealth Director of Public Prosecutions, and also the role of a key witness in the coming trial. The expert witness had been seconded from the Australian Taxation Office and had observed the men's crime commission examinations.

A ''very happy'' Mr Seller said he would ''let the judgment speak for itself [about his opinion of the Wickenby investigations]''.

''The relevant thing is if this is [happening] on other cases. I think it's an issue that flows.''

When asked about seeking compensation, he said: ''These things are being mooted at the moment, but I think it's early days yet. We have to see if there's any appeal.''

Justice Peter Garling yesterday found the ''conduct of the Crime Commission, in conjunction with the Commonwealth Director of Public Prosecutions, has deprived them of the protection which the law ensured. Any trial would not be fair.''

He noted that charges were only stayed by courts in ''extreme'' circumstances, as there was a strong public interest for criminal allegations to be prosecuted.

But he said it would offend the ''administration of justice for the applicants to be confronted by prosecution authorities who have had access to material ordinarily caught by the privilege against self-incrimination, but which has been compulsorily obtained''.

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New QBE chief upbeat despite sell-down

JUST hours after taking charge of the 126-year-old QBE Insurance, John Neal felt the sting of jittery investment markets.
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Shares in the global insurer were sold off heavily as QBE delivered a $US760 million first-half profit and the new chief executive was forced to issue the third profit margin outlook downgrade this year.

But Mr Neal, the former head of QBE's Europe businesses, was taking the sell-down to a two-month low in his stride. ''It's just one day,'' he told BusinessDay on his first day in the role. ''I'm certainly looking longer-term.''

Mr Neal believes QBE can emerge as a top 10 global insurer, competing against European companies Zurich and Allianz. With a market capitalisation of $15 billion, QBE was yesterday ranked 18th among the world's general insurers.

''We're one of the few truly global insurers in that [top] pack and so many of them are concentrated in one market,'' Mr Neal said.

''One of our challenges is to leverage all that expertise we have in QBE and therefore be able to grow in multiple markets.''

Yesterday's sell-down left a tinge of disappointment for Frank O'Halloran, who formally stepped down as chief executive yesterday morning after more than 12 years.

Mr O'Halloran transformed QBE from a mid-level insurer into a worldwide player through more than 120 acquisitions on nearly every continent.

While Mr O'Halloran will remain with QBE for a further fortnight as he finalises some administrative roles, it was Mr Neal who fronted analysts to run through QBE's first-half numbers. The 13 per cent lift in profit for the six months to June 30 was overshadowed by insurance margin pressure and a slight fall in premium revenues to $US8.9 billion.

QBE's interim dividend of 40¢ for the half was also below expectations of 42¢. The dividend was down from 62¢ a share this time last year.

QBE shares plunged as much as 11 per cent in early trading, before clawing back some ground to end 4.5 per cent lower at $13.05.

For his part, Mr Neal believes the market had been getting ahead of itself.

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Oroton puts shine on its split from Ralph Lauren

Oroton: Contingency plans in place.WHILE Oroton Group had been hopeful of retaining the licence to exclusively distribute Ralph Lauren in Australasia, it could not have been too surprised this week when the global apparel brand decided to take back the business as of June 30 next year.
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While the news shocked the markets enough to send Oroton's share price down as much as 20 per cent yesterday, the signs were already there in 2010 when the two parties extended a relationship two decades old.

At the time, Ralph Lauren took back the licence from Dickson Poon to distribute the brand in China, Hong Kong and a number of other Asian countries. The US-based company had earlier taken control of its brand in Japan and Europe.

It did not go unnoticed at Oroton.

Chief executive Sally Macdonald told BusinessDay: ''While we're disappointed, we had contingency plans in place.''

Oroton, one of the few star performers among Australia's listed retail stocks, said Ralph Lauren currently accounted for 45 per cent of group sales and 35 per cent of net profits.

''This is clearly a disappointing announcement,'' said Goldman Sachs analyst George Batsakis.

The broker dropped its price target on the stock from $9.90 to $6.95 and slashed earnings estimates by as much as 35 per cent over the next two years but retained a buy recommendation on the stock.

''Despite [the] announcement, we believe Oroton will be in a strong position to grow earnings from the 2014 financial year,'' he said.

Ms Macdonald stressed the opportunities in Asia the company could pursue with the freed-up capital, and ''the opportunity to consider complementary acquisitions of owned and licensed brands that under the [Lauren] contract we were precluded from pursuing''.

But she said the company was not preparing to ramp up its Asian expansion plans from its target of opening about four new stores a year. ''To successfully build brands in new markets you need to do that in a measured way,'' Ms Macdonald said.

The company is expected to open new stores in Hong Kong and Shanghai next year.

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Meritocracy takes a nose-dive as Japan Airlines soars again

JAPAN Airlines owes me something as it plans an $US8.5 billion initial public offering: a thank-you. Not because I'm a frequent flyer, but because I'm a Japan taxpayer.
Nanjing Night Net

In the euphoria over the carrier emerging from bankruptcy, aren't we forgetting the jumbo-sized role of the state? A $US4.5 billion government-orchestrated bailout and even bigger subsidies that let it avoid billions of dollars in future tax payments.

So, next month, when JAL tries the most ambitious IPO since Facebook, it should do so with humility and full knowledge of how its trajectory is another blow to Japan's status as a meritocratic economy. The goodies JAL is using to resurface as a public company are weighing on rival All Nippon Airways, an outfit that actually tries to run itself as a for-profit enterprise.

The airline's IPO is being held up as a good-news story of rebirth, reformation and fresh opportunities - when it's anything but.

You can understand the desire for a promising turn-around tale. The past year has been a dismal one for Japan Inc. From Tokyo Electric Power Co's incompetence, to scandals at Olympus, not to mention Daio Paper, Nomura Holdings and AIJ Investment Advisors, examples of weak corporate governance abound. It's only in contrast to this wreckage that JAL can look like a success story.

In reality, the public coddling JAL enjoys as it returns to the stockmarket is emblematic of so much of what ails Japan. All Nippon rebounded to profit in the first quarter as air traffic recovered from disruptions caused by the Japanese tsunami and nuclear crisis of March last year. The airline succeeded on its own in a turbulent global environment, not because of a government lifeline.

Now, All Nippon's outlook is in jeopardy. JAL's unfair, taxpayer-supported leg-up on All Nippon will inhibit competition and further delay the creation of a viable budget-airline industry.

JAL hasn't come up with a low-cost carrier strategy, and its advantage will slow All Nippon's full embracement of a trend that has long benefited consumers in Europe, America and other parts of Asia. Japan's ''budget'' carriers are cheap in name only.

The unseen costs of publicly financed corporate favouritism riddle Japan's economy. Investors forget that when Japan grows 3 per cent a year it's only because of an endless cycle of fiscal stimulus, deficit spending and zero interest rates, which have distorted the nation's credit system. If Japan Airlines' IPO is a roaring success, few will pause to consider the artificial stimulants that make it so.

Such cosseting of national champions doesn't get the attention it deserves.

The post-tsunami nuclear crisis that almost caused the evacuation of Tokyo was a direct result of Tepco's incompetence and the company's government enablers. Decades of lax safety policies were ignored by bureaucrats looking for cushy post-retirement gigs in the power industry. Tepco's pervasive influence explains the decision of Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda to allow the restart of reactors after the disaster, defying the public backlash against nuclear power.

Some day Japan will have a finance minister with the courage to tell companies to stop bellyaching about the strong currency and learn to adapt the way the Germans did. The present occupant of that position, Jun Azumi, isn't that man. He should spend less time threatening to intervene in markets and more working to make the Japanese economy more competitive. He has done nothing to increase female participation in the shrinking, male-dominated labour force.

To its credit, JAL has done some heavy lifting since its 2010 bankruptcy. It slashed thousands of jobs, cut debt and retired older, less fuel-efficient aircraft. But at what price? Its bankruptcy wiped out shareholders. And even if the airline repays the government-backed Enterprise Initiative Turnaround Corp of Japan, which financed the company's bailout, Japan will still be giving away untold billions of dollars in tax breaks.

Nor is it clear that JAL has learned the right lessons after at least four bailouts in the past decade. Knowledge that the government is always at the ready as a back-up removes the urgency to make the wrenching, but needed, reforms. Thanks to the latest rescue, consumers and businesses will continue overpaying for flights and have fewer scheduling options.

The other question is whether the market will give JAL the Facebook treatment. The social-networking company and JAL share something in common in the hype department. Facebook's buyers bought into the mania and have regretted it ever since as the shares slide. JAL's supporters, rather than trying to ride the next big thing, will be domestic retail investors desperate for a feel-good business story.

If JAL really is a happy tale, it will probably end once its executives hit up taxpayers for another handout.


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Ignore the propaganda: cutting wages will not fix productivity

Managers are to blame.''The most brilliant propagandist technique will yield no success unless one fundamental principle is borne in mind constantly - it must confine itself to a few points and repeat them over and over.''
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SO SAID Joseph Goebbels, master manipulator of the truth in Adolf Hitler's evil Third Reich. Although not as well-known as his more famous ''if you tell a big enough lie and keep repeating it, people will eventually come to believe it'', it more succinctly encapsulates the spin and hyperbole that is the hallmark of the debate over our economy.

For the past few years, we've been bombarded by a constant theme from the business lobby groups: Australian productivity is slipping and unless we have a more flexible labour market and governments reduce regulation, we'll all be ruined.

There's a sliver of truth to the argument. Productivity indeed has plunged. And labour productivity has slipped in recent years. But the real culprit in the great Australian productivity decline is capital, not labour. It is our managers who have let us down, rather than our workforce. And in any case, all the statistics have been thrown completely out of whack by the massive investment boom in our resources sector.

Those are some of the findings of a report this week by global management consultancy McKinsey & Co, which goes a long way to clearing some of the smoke around an issue that has become a lightning rod for the business community and is shaping as a serious election issue. Unfortunately, most who argue so passionately on the topic seem blissfully ignorant of even the fundamental meaning of the term.

For when they raise labour market inflexibility as a problem, they really mean wages or the price of labour, which has very little to do with productivity. Most business people figure, if you reduce the cost of labour, the firm will make a bigger profit and that must be a lift in productivity.

Sorry to disappoint. But cutting wages is more likely to reduce labour productivity, which, simply put, is the amount of goods or services a worker produces. If a worker produces more, his or her productivity has risen. If the same worker's output falls, productivity is down. Nothing to do with cost.

Apart from appearing to be a diversionary tactic from where the blame truly lies for our productivity slump, the unending campaign to drastically reshape our industrial relations system could come back to bite the business sector. It overlooks the potential damage of such action on the long-term profitability of our corporations, particularly those with a domestic focus.

What is often ignored in this heated debate is that, outside of work hours, labour usually is referred to as consumers. Your workers are also your customers.

Reduce their income and eliminate their job security and you may well end up selling less product. On the other side of the ledger, productivity is also likely to suffer. Let's face it, cutting wages and conditions is hardly an incentive to work harder.

In survey after survey, we are told of the dire state of consumer confidence and the impact this is having on sales and company profits. It may be indefinite if a radical industrial relations shake-up is thrown into the mix.

During the past 20 years, our industrial relations system has been constantly evolving and an increasing proportion of our workforce has become part time, casual or short-term contract workers. That has increased labour market flexibility, allowing companies to adjust employee numbers as conditions dictate.

But those workers, most of them younger new entrants into the labour force, are a greater credit risk for banks simply because their income is less secure. They are less likely to buy real estate as they are less willing to commit to long-term finance.

Those that do take the plunge often do so with financial assistance from their baby boomer parents, the ones who had a steady income and a secure job.

That aside, the evidence is now clear. Labour market productivity is nowhere near as dire as our business leaders suggest.

According to McKinsey's Beyond the Boom: Australia's Productivity Imperative labour productivity rose at an annual 0.3 per cent during the past six years. That's a snail's pace when compared with the experiences of the 1990s when productivity grew at an annual 3.1 per cent. At least it is positive. Capital productivity on the other hand, has turned negative, wiping $43 billion from national income. Why? Well, a couple of reasons. One is that much of the enormous recent investment in new machines and building new mines has yet to generate an income. And so as that new plant and equipment starts churning out exports, a great deal of our productivity ''problem'' - both for labour and capital - will be solved.

But the report also highlights what must be an uncomfortable truth for Australian managers, particularly in our resources sector. It reckons a large portion of the cost increases in our mining sector is down to poor management. With a resources boom of unprecedented proportions, the scale and magnitude of the projects under construction has stretched management capabilities, many of whom have little experience with these mega projects.

The McKinsey criticism was not confined to the resources sector. It seems management in our manufacturing industries underperforms most advanced economies. We're ninth on the list after America, Japan and European nations such as Germany, Sweden, Britain, France and Italy with Canada in fifth place.

America's productivity has soared in recent years, although there is evidence it has begun to taper off. In part, that is because of its high unemployment. The most productive workers were the ones more likely to keep their jobs when the recession hit. But there is more to it than that.

Innovative management techniques - working out how to produce more with the same inputs including workers - has been a driving force behind the resurgence of US manufacturing, along with a weak dollar that has boosted exports.

Our productivity ''problem'' will best be solved through investment - in new and more efficient machines and in education to produce more skilled workers and better managers - not with a slash-and-burn approach to wages and conditions. That's something you're unlikely to hear in the coming propaganda war.

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Bargain sites face endgame

Online sales plus geographic convenience could add up for traditional retailers.MYER chief Bernie Brookes says online bargain sites, such as Catch of the Day, GraysOnline and DealsDirect, have ''had their moment in the sun''.
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And he says Australia's traditional retailers will start to dominate online as they get ''fair dinkum'' about the web and integrate it with their stores as an omnichannel offering.

Mr Brookes said these ''flash sites'' all faced the same problem in terms of consistent availability of product and attempt to establish the brand trust of traditional retailers.

''They've been there when there has been no effective competition,'' Mr Brookes said. ''If we produce a list in three years' time of the top internet sellers in Australia, it will be dominated by the Myers, the David Joneses, the Kmarts, the existing bricks-and-mortar retailers. That's exactly what's happened in the US and UK.''

One critical advantage for traditional retailers was the geographic coverage of their stores. Once this was integrated with their digital service as an omnichannel offering, it would be hard for pure online players to compete with the convenience and service, Mr Brookes said.

But he admitted that global price harmonisation - to ensure local prices were competitive with what overseas sellers can offer - was one of the last pieces of the puzzle needed to make all this work.

He said surveys of in-store customers indicated that they rate convenience, fashion/style, service and price, in that order, but it was a different story for online.

''When we survey our customers online, price is No. 1,'' he said.

Mr Brookes said 20 per cent of the company's range was house brands and these were unaffected by price harmonisation. Another 40 to 45 per cent of Myer sales were globally price competitive.

''However, we've probably got 20 to 30 per cent of the range which is not competitive on a world scale,'' he said, naming cosmetic companies and men's apparel as two of the main culprits.

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Power and the passion play across the boards

An elite web of influence connects some of the fiercest corporate rivals.
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LINDSAY Maxsted may be the most influential person in corporate Australia.

An analysis of public company directorships shows that Mr Maxsted, a director with BHP Billiton, Transurban and Westpac, is capable of exercising a more powerful influence over the most common measure of Australia's corporate performance than any other person - and that by a fair whack.

Mr Maxsted's positions give him board-level influence over companies valued at more than $182 billion. He takes part in decisions that change the course of more than 16 per cent of the total weight of the S&P/ASX 200 Index, the most-watched index of Australian shares.

The next-most-influential person, fellow BHP board member Carolyn Hewson, holds sway over nearly 10 per cent of the index. She is also a board member at developer Stockland.

The findings are part of a project carried out over months by The Age to chart the networks and influences that direct - quite literally - our largest, most important companies.


The primary outcome of the project is a map of board-level connections that tie the companies that comprise the 200 to one another. The map includes biographical information collated by Who's Who Australia and can be viewed at www.theage南京夜网.au/opinion/blog/the-crunch.

Companies tend to be spoken of as if they were distinct identities, engaged in bitter rivalry and constant battle for a share of consumers' wallets.

Incongruously, company boards tend to be spoken of as clubs, membership to which is reserved for an elite few who spend their careers flipping from one boardroom to the next.

Of the 1539 directors on our list, 205 hold positions on multiple boards. Qantas director Garry Hounsell alone holds five - Nufarm, Orica, PanAust and DuluxGroup are the others - making him the person with the greatest number of board seats.

And if Mr Hounsell is a hub through which many companies are tied, his influence extends further by the connections on his boards - particularly Qantas. Seven of the 15 directors at the notional ''national carrier'' hold additional seats within the top 200 companies.

Mr Maxsted says it is easier than might be imagined for directors to compartmentalise their responsibilities from company to company. ''In each of those three roles there are very clear mandates for what I need to do,'' he says.

However, he says it was invaluable to take lessons learnt in particular contexts and apply them elsewhere.

For example, he says he did not go to BHP to learn about China, but the knowledge is invaluable in his role at Westpac.

All the connections depicted in our project are public, but that does not make them obvious.

Many of the most interesting connections are at one or two degrees of separation from any particular company.

For example, BHP Billiton and Rio Tinto are the first- and second-largest companies listed on the ASX if measured by the total value of their shares. They are also, perhaps, the exchange's most prominent rivals. Yet, they are connected at a single degree of separation. Our map shows Rio director Richard Goodmanson is on the Qantas board with John Schubert, a BHP director.

As the benchmark index of Australian shares, the S&P/ASX200 Index, more than any other financial instrument, influences and describes the way the Australian corporate universe is perceived.

''Power,'' according to shareholders' rights advocate Dean Paatsch, ''is the ability to mobilise capital.'' It is that assertion that leads us to conclude that Mr Maxsted may be the most powerful in Australia's pool of public company directors.

Mr Maxsted connects BHP to Westpac, where he also sits as a director.

Companies are ''weighted'' within the S&P/ASX200 Index, and their shares influence the performance of the index depending on that weighting. BHP and Westpac are the first- and third-most influential companies on the list, carrying more than 15 per cent of the weight of the index between them.

Until very recently, BHP and Westpac shared an even greater bond, as Ms Hewson stepped down from the Westpac board just last June. During that period she would have sat comfortably atop our measures of influence as the nation's most influential corporate director.

A comparable nexus of power can be found surrounding the boardroom table at a much smaller corporate player, punting group Tabcorp.

That board boasts a prodigious financial pedigree, as it hosts one director from Commonwealth Bank (Jane Hemstritch) and another from ANZ (Paula Dwyer). Tabcorp director Elmer Funke Kupper also sits on the board of ASX Ltd, the company that operates the exchange itself, as that company's chief executive.

Tabcorp's board makes it possible to tie all four of the nation's largest banks within three degrees of separation.

■Westpac director Elizabeth Bryan sits on the Caltex board with National Australia Bank's John Thorn.

■NAB's Jillian Segal sits on the board of ASX Ltd with Tabcorp's Elmer Funke Kupper.

■Tabcorp links ANZ and Commonwealth Bank by hosting CBA's Jane Hemstritch and ANZ's Paula Dwyer, both on the one board.

The supermarket industry is similarly cosy. Coles and Woolworths are separated by a single company; infrastructure giant Lend Lease.

Colin Carter, a director of Coles' owner Wesfarmers, shares the Lend Lease board with Woolworths director Michael Ullmer.

The network can be extended from Coles to Metcash, owner of supermarket chain IGA, in one step: building materials company Boral. Both Wesfarmers' Bob Every and Metcash's Richard Longes sit on that board.

And to avoid suggestions of bias, it must be said that the board of media company Fairfax, the owner of this newspaper, is directly connected to Ten Network Holdings, with which we compete for online traffic.

Hungry Jack's founder Jack Cowin has been a director of Ten since 1998. He was appointed to Fairfax last month.

Through Mr Cowin, the media industry becomes very cosy indeed. He shares the Ten board with Lachlan Murdoch.

That association links, via one degree of separation, the company that owns this newspaper, to News Corporation, publisher and owner of The Australian and the Herald Sun, two of this paper's most direct rivals in every media platform in which we operate.

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